Dr Strangeheat

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Dr Strangeheat

Postby godfrey » August 10th, 2015, 6:18 pm

Or how I learned to stop worrying and love global warming.

Actually, it never bothered me too much. In the early '00s, with all those hot summers, I saw no reason to disbelieve in it. It may sound selfish but, when the Met Office promised us a Mediterranean-style climate with 'hot, dry summers and warm, wet winters', I was quite looking forward to it. The Welsh mountains are 2-4 hours from here, depending on whether you want South or North, and, as we all know, under normal conditions the words path and watercourse may be used interchangeably in those parts. Dry conditions underfoot and a blue sky above were quite appealing.

The first tiny doubt crept in in 2007. My wife died suddenly in early 2006. My pastor died in the autumn; and in the spring of '07, I proposed to his widow. With the wedding set for July, I naturally began to watch the weather.

Summer '07 was a washout. And I noticed something interesting about the Met Office forecasts: all through the late spring and summer they said, every week, "It will rain next week and the week after, then there are signs of high pressure building." It never built; it rained, and it rained, and it rained. One guest couldn't get to the wedding because her part of Swindon was under water. In the back of my mind, I began to wonder about whether the Met Office gave value for money.

So to 2008. With all the clobber from a total of 75 years of previous marriage between us, the house needed alterations and extensions. Why not redo the garden at the same time? For my sun-loving new bride, I put in no less than 3 areas of south-facing patio to take advantage of the Mediterranean climate. To stop the new soft furnishings fading in the Mediterranean-intensity sun, we put blinds in all the windows. "We're really pushing external wooden shutters," said the salesman. "With global warming you're really going to need them." But they were beyond our means - fortunately as it transpired, because 2008 was another washout. It rained, and it rained, and it rained. It was warm enough to sit on our lovely new patio exactly one day that summer.

And the winter ... was cold.

So to 2009 ...

To be continued.
Milligan nodded. What was the use? After all, if Albert Einstein stood for a thousand years in front of fifty monkeys explaining the theory of relativity, at the end, they'd still be just monkeys.
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby Sprocket » August 10th, 2015, 7:20 pm

Well, this summer's a bit crap so far, but we're talking about global long-term averages, with which a run of crap summers in one country is perfectly consistent.
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby godfrey » August 11th, 2015, 9:00 am

And on to 2009 ...

After the big February snowfall, here in the UK we had The Barbecue Summer.

To be fair to the Met Office, they didn't say we would have a barbecue summer - only an 80% chance of average or above average temperatures - but that's the way the media picked it up, because they called a special press conference to announce it.

July was one of the wettest on record ... even so, this stuff didn't really impinge on me too much, till in the autumn, we had ... Climategate.

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"


I suppose the bit that was the real eye-opener was the HARRY_READ_ME file. I taught IT for 28 years, and I know about Garbage In, Garbage Out. This was Garbage In to a Garbage Program. This was climate modelling?

Another, slighter surprise was where all this global warming stuff was coming from. I'd always subconsciously supposed it was places like Cambridge and MIT. No offence to their alumni, but UAE and Penn State aren't in the same league.

And lastly, there was the content of the emails themselves: the revelation that the science was far from settled; the conspiracy to hide unfortunate data that conflicted with the global warming mantra; the attempts to ruin the careers of academic colleagues who dared to publish dissenting papers.

No, question about it, what we had here was fraud. That was where I really started to pay attention. I love frauds and hoaxes.

Right after Climategate came the Copenhagen climate conference. notable for two things: the heavy snow that fell on it, and the number of global warming enthusiasts who found it necessary to put themselves on greenhouse-effect-enhancing long distance flights to attend. The obvious conclusion: these guys were on the gravy train and didn't really give a monkey's about global warming.

And in December, we started ... The Big Freeze.

On to 2010 ...
Milligan nodded. What was the use? After all, if Albert Einstein stood for a thousand years in front of fifty monkeys explaining the theory of relativity, at the end, they'd still be just monkeys.
- Spike Milligan, Puckoon
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby godfrey » August 12th, 2015, 5:34 am

2010 ... ah. The Big Freeze. Who can forget that iconic satellite photo of the whole of Britain covered in snow? I was later to discover the immortal quote of Dr David Viner of UAE: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is." (2000)

In the meantime I was quite wrapped up in this fascinating new area of deceit and deception. A rough-and-ready summary of the sort of argument that was being made was something on these lines:

1. CO2 causes global warming.
2. Only CO2 causes global warming.
3. Climate is extremely sensitive to changes in CO2.
4. CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere at an alarming rate through man's activities.
5. Hence we have catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW).

Which seemed a bit dicey. Weather is chaotic and depends on lots of variables. Why is climate linear and predictable? Anyway, I found my way to a lot of web sites I hadn't known existed, of the type generally termed skeptic, and learned a few things:

    Climate was - or at least had been - warming as the earth emerged from the Little Ice Age.
    There had been plenty of periods in the earth's history when it had been warmer than today, without CO2.
    If you went back to the 1930s, you found much more extreme weather. And in the 1920s people were predicting an ice-free Arctic just like they were today. But it hadn't happened; in the 1940s my dad served in the Arctic convoys: he had photographs of icicles feet long hanging off the guns. A seaman died, slipping off a ladder and hitting the deck headfirst. Months later the bloodstain was still there because the deck was covered in ice so thick and hard it couldn't be chipped or melted.

But there seemed to be an effort under way to cover all this up. A famous quote: "We've got to get rid of the Mediaeval Warm Period." And I watched as an interesting drama unfolded in real time: it would be discovered that a Met Office or Bureau in some country was massaging temperature records, lowering old figures and raising recent ones - thus making it look as if temperatures were increasing more than the data warranted. This process, "homogenization", continues to this day. And in each country (I can remember Australia, New Zealand and the USA, there were probably others), the same dialogue took place:

Skeptics: You're altering the data.
Met Office: Ah, that's because (complicated reason).
Skeptics: But that's invalid because (other complicated reason).
Met Office: Deafening silence.

Cue Roz from Monsters Inc: Ya stunned silence is very reassuring.

About this time it was fashionable to claim that 97/98/99% of climate scientists believed in CAGW. I had a look at one of the surveys, partly as the result of a dialogue on this forum: Anderegg et all, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2010. This was the 98% one. I can't remember the exact details, but a quick look revealed:

    Only one of the 4 authors (Schneider) was an academic, the rest could barely muster a Master's between them, and at least 2 were global warming activists or employed by the green industry;
    PNAS may sound impressive, but it's been described as vanity publishing for the members of the NAS, because their contributions are not peer-reviewed;
    Schneider was a member of the NAS; draw your own conclusions, I drew mine;
    I wouldn't have accepted the methodology from a GCSE Statistics student: to get a sample, they had done a Google search; in English; thus eliminating anything written in Russian, Chinese or German, to name but three.

Summer in the UK was unimpressive, with temperatures below average and rainfall above average. The winter brought the coldest December since Met Office records began in 1910.
Milligan nodded. What was the use? After all, if Albert Einstein stood for a thousand years in front of fifty monkeys explaining the theory of relativity, at the end, they'd still be just monkeys.
- Spike Milligan, Puckoon
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby Sprocket » August 12th, 2015, 7:31 am

I still can't believe that a conspiracy as huge as the one you're suggesting could be sustained for any length of time, with essentially no motive for it, and huge ones against it (the displeasure of the oil and car-manufacturing industries, and of the huge mass of ordinary people who are inconvenienced by the measures proposed). Why would the governments of the world, and all the world's scientific acadamies, go all-out to make themselves massively unpopular, if it isn't true? Please don't give me Pondy's usual bullshit about wanting to get grants - doubting scientists can easily get grants from the aforementioned vested interests. In any case, it's no answer - why are the academic grants only available to believers, if there's no motive for, and every motive against?
Why is it, furthermore, that all the prominent doubters are non-scientists, such as Nigel Lawson, Viscount Monckton, Melanie Phillips, Peter Hitchens, and Jeremy Clarkson? Not only that, but they are all on the political right. When hypothesis purporting to be scientific is only pushed by people with a particular ideological axe to grind, it must be highly suspect, which is one of many reasons why creationism is such obvious bullshit.
In any case, I don't think your second proposition, that only CO2 is to blame for global warming, is claimed by anyone - at least I've never heard or read it claimed. It is, nevertheless, a fairly potent greenhouse gas, and we've been pumping it into the atmosphere in huge amounts since the industrial revolution, so it's hard to see how global warming can not be taking place.
I've also never heard of anyone trying to hide the medieval warm period - a ludicrous idea anyway, since it is well-known to moderately aware laymen, such as me, let alone climate scientists.
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby Sprocket » August 12th, 2015, 10:00 am

And another thing - it's not just the orthodox who fiddle figures. A notorious list of the names of many supposed climate-change-doubting scientists was published some years ago, but many of the scientists on it were furious when they found out, and angrily demanded that their names be removed. It turned out that the compilers of the list had listed not only out-and-out doubters, but also just about any scientist who had ever expressed the slightest reservation about any aspect of the orthodoxy, even if they firmly accepted the general thesis.
I think it is also relevant to draw comparisons with the scientific consensus on the dangers of smoking: No-one who wants to be taken seriously now doubts that smoking, especially cigarettes, is dangerous (I'm smoking a pipe as type, actually, but I don't pretend that it's risk-free, though cigs are the real killers, because you inhale), but in the 60s, big tobacco funded many scientists who were willing to compromise their integrity to produce reports questioning the danger. They had to give up eventually, because the evidence was overwhelming, but they effectively put back serious action on smoking and health by a decade or two. I strongly suspect that big oil is now doing the same on climate change; in fact we know that it is - the notorious Koch brothers fund climate-change-denial.
Treason doth never prosper: what's the reason?
Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason.
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby Pondero » August 12th, 2015, 10:28 am

There is a book out, published this year,Sprocket, entitled Climate Change the Facts, and I purchased a copy of it. Among the contributors to it, are
John Abbot. Senior Research Fellow at Central Queensland University.I.Scott Armstrong.University of Pennsylvania.,Ehrenberg-Bass Institute,Australia.Robert More.Carter,former Professor and Headof the School of Earth Sciences at James Cook University, Christopher Essex,Associate Chair of Department of Mathematics,University of Western Ontario. Stephen W.Franks.Foundation Chair of Environmental Engineering,University of Tasmania..Richard A.Linden.Atmospheric physicist, former professor of Meteorology at MI.I.T.1983-2013.Garth We.Partridge,Ian Plimer,Willie Soon,and Anthony Watts.
To name many of them. The above are all scientists who do not believe in Global Warming.

Wake up and smell the coffee, Sprocket, GLOBAL Warming is an enormous fraud.
According to one study, the average adult has a shorter attention span (eight seconds) than a goldfish (nine seconds).
This is not surprising in today's wired , or wified world.
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby Sprocket » August 12th, 2015, 10:34 am

Wake up and drop the tiresome trendy cliches, Pondy - you're being had by Big Oil. That book is published by the Institute of Public Affairs, a notorious right-wing set-up in Australia, funded by Big Oil, Big Tobacco, and other vested interests.
You have STILL not explained in whose interest it is to propagate this "enormous fraud". It is very obvious in whose interests it is to deny it.
Treason doth never prosper: what's the reason?
Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason.
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby Pondero » August 12th, 2015, 11:08 am

Now,that the slanging match before us is in full swing. I will continue,Sprocket.Mark Steyn is behind publication of this book Climate Change the Facts.. One believes what one believes based on the facts. The articles are written both in plain English, for non scientists in a manner that I can understand, and also some articles are full of scientific data and graphs showing the untruths behind Climate Change. I make up my own mind as to what to believe.And all know where I stand.


As this is godfrey's thread, I await the weather report for 2011 onwards. I do know and I mentioned this on another thread that we in Canada had two of the coldest winter's on record recently.

Any insulting remarks should be transferred to another thread. Let us try to keep this one free of acrimony.
According to one study, the average adult has a shorter attention span (eight seconds) than a goldfish (nine seconds).
This is not surprising in today's wired , or wified world.
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Re: Dr Strangeheat

Postby Val » August 12th, 2015, 2:45 pm

There are absolutely lorry loads of uncontested scientific evidence to support the theory that we humans are influencing the global climate in a bad way, we do this by our misuse and overuse of fossil fuels, we are also polluting our natural water reserves, waterways and oceans, by overfishing mostly for animal feed, many countries casually dump waste into our seas in the belief that nature can take care of it, and we are destroying millions of acres of air cleansing forests every week to create cheap furniture and packing crates to transport these cheap items in.
Our world is being stifled by waste plastics, by nappy liners, by oil waste, and other nonessential cheap fast-food products. There are thousands of other waste products to numerous to mention here.
But and it’s a big BUT!
Our delicate ecosystem has a tipping point and when we reach that …then, well then, we are all in shit creek.
Silly statements like.
Our summers are cold and wet, or our winters are colder than they were in our parent’s time so global warming is a myth, are meaningless.
Global warming doesn’t mean that Ireland, or UK summers are going to be scorchers, but we can all see that they are changing and not for our better, a friend of mine whose family live in Erbil, in Northern Iraq, told me that last Thursday temperature reached 51c, offices had to close because they couldn’t produce enough electricity to cover the demands, especially for air-conditioning, motor cars parked up on streets exposed to direct sunlight had they plastic mouldings melt, similar with cheaply made tyres, and interior plastics.
Savage storms devastate certain areas bringing death and destruction, crops in mid US are dying because they cannot irrigate them, crops in other parts are dying because of flooding, and it’s the severity of these conditions that is damaging.
It’s all about delicate balance, and we are interfering in that to our detriment, no matter what the money mongers claim, when we’ve polluted the natural groundwater to a point that it is no longer drinkable, and we’ve polluted the seas to the point of destruction, and when we’ve destroyed enough forests so that the system cannot recover… what then…who can we blame?
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
John Stuart Mill

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
Edmund Burke
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