Electoral Calculus

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Electoral Calculus

Postby Theophilus » May 20th, 2017, 8:08 pm

A site that uses up-to-date polls and national trends to predict General Election outcomes:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

... it has been largely accurate in the past, apparently, and even drills down into individual seats to predict what the result will be and expected majority:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

The only weakness is that it only looks at national trends and doesn't take into account local issues (such as the popularity/unpopularity of a particular candidate etc). For this election that might not be such an issue, as it does indeed seem that national issues (particularly Brexit) are going to influence how people vote; this is certainly the impression I get living in the usually Labour-voting but heavily leave-voting East Midlands, where many people who have never voted Tory will do so this time round (a 'loaned' vote).

Currently we are still on course for a crushing Conservative Party victory, although it has been corrected slightly for the slight upswing Labour has had in the last view polls. A week ago, Brighton Pavillion was predicted to swing from Green to the Conservatives, but it is now back as predicting a Green win (still very close though).
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby Sprocket » May 20th, 2017, 10:48 pm

I very much hope Caroline Lucas holds on as MP. There are two or three other constituencies which could conceivably go Green - I hope they do.
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby Theophilus » May 20th, 2017, 11:11 pm

Really? Which ones? I'd like to see what the above site says about the chances of any Green candidates in those areas. The national trends seem to be that only the Conservatives and Labour are gaining any popular ground at the expense of other parties (outside of Scotland and NI). The Lib Dems are predicted to lose seats, despite only having 8 now, and it does indeed seem from the county elections (where Lib Dems tend to do well) that very few people are voting for them. I don't see the Greens, UKIP or Plaid Cymru making any gains at all (and even the SNP will lose seats, though that's unsurprising given their starting position).
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby Sprocket » May 21st, 2017, 6:52 am

"I'm fucking busy, and vice versa" - Dorothy Parker.
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby Pondero » May 21st, 2017, 10:49 am

When is election day again? June 9th, I am keenly interested in watching the results.Long live democracy!
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby GregB » May 21st, 2017, 11:48 am

No, it's June 8th (always a Thursday; here in Spain, a Sunday - better as people don't have to find time to vote as they do on a working day, allotted time off notwithstanding.)
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby Theophilus » May 21st, 2017, 5:10 pm



On the electoral calculus site all three are predicted as being Labour holds. Norwich South and Bristol South are very tight, but if they were to swing in any direction, it would be to the Tories (Green are currently predicted as having 0% chance of victory in these seats). Again, these calculations take into account national trends (in England and Wales) which will see a large upswing in support for the Conservatives, a collapse in the UKIP vote and a slight drop in the Green and Lib Dem share as people either abstain or plump with one of the big two parties. Bristol West is predicted to be held by Labour with the Tories overtaking the Greens for second place.
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby Pondero » May 21st, 2017, 9:18 pm

GregB wrote:No, it's June 8th (always a Thursday; here in Spain, a Sunday - better as people don't have to find time to vote as they do on a working day, allotted time off notwithstanding.)

Thanks for giving me the correct date Greg.
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby Sprocket » May 21st, 2017, 9:18 pm

Electoral Calculus isn't the Delphic oracle. We shall see.
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Re: Electoral Calculus

Postby Pondero » May 21st, 2017, 9:22 pm

Sprocket wrote:Electoral Calculus isn't the Delphic oracle. We shall see.

Years ago I saw the Oracle at Delphi in Greece. Maybe we should consult it to see the outcome of this election!
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